Colorado’s record-warm winter sets stage for severe wildfire season

DURANGO, Colo. — After Colorado’s warmest March on record, wildfire experts are concerned about what’s to come.

“We’re already seeing early season fire activity,” said Tracy LeClair, public information officer for the state’s Wildland Fire Management Section. “I think we’re going to have an unusually early and potentially very severe fire season.”

“The data is tracking worse than the precursors to some of the biggest fire seasons we’ve seen,” LeClair said, pointing to years like 2012, 2018 and 2020. In a typical year, wildfire risk builds gradually — starting on the plains in early spring, then moving into mountains as snow melts. But this year, that pattern is breaking down.

Snowpack across Colorado has dropped to about 40% of its historical median, the lowest in more than 40 years. With little snow to compress vegetation, grasses remain upright and dry. Those fine fuels can ignite quickly, especially when paired with heat, wind and low humidity.

Across eastern Colorado, conditions are already prime for fires. Much of the region has received less than half of its normal precipitation over the past three months, with record or near-record fuel dryness recorded at monitoring stations.

Fire behavior in those conditions can be extreme. Grass fires spread as fast as 2 to 5 miles per hour under strong winds.

“There really is no such thing as a fire season anymore,” LeClair said. Fires have occurred as late as December and as early as March. The Marshall Fire started on Dec. 30, 2021 and became the most destructive wildfire in Colorado, destroying more than 1,000 homes in Boulder County.

On the ground, fire agencies are already adjusting.

South Metro Fire Rescue in Centennial is increasing staffing on high-risk days. Crews are deploying additional brush trucks — smaller, off-road firefighting vehicles — alongside standard engines to respond quickly if a fire sparks.

“We’re trying to put ourselves in a better position should something happen,” said Tyler Marsh, the agency’s emergency communications director.

The department is also using drones to map fire perimeters, identify hotspots and track fire movement in real time.

Another concern this year is what didn’t happen over the winter.

Low snowpack prevented many prescribed burns. Without those treatments, more vegetation remains on the landscape, increasing the potential intensity of future fires.

At the same time, every region in Colorado is experiencing some level of drought, with some high country areas in “exceptional drought,” the most dire designation.

Even spring rain may not offer much relief. Moisture can trigger new plant growth, which can later dry out and add to the fuel load.

Fire potential is expected to remain elevated through spring and could increase further into summer, particularly on the Western Slope as drought conditions persist.

That could strain resources as multiple regions and even other states compete for firefighters during peak months.

“We are going to be in this for the long haul this year,” LeClair said.

With months of fire weather ahead, public awareness could make a difference.

LeClair urges people to check local fire restrictions, avoid open flames on high-risk days and clear flammable materials around their homes. Even small sparks from campfires, grills or equipment can quickly escalate.

“It’s going to take every single one of us this year to help keep Colorado safe,” LeClair said.